GMAT Argument 86重新选题
写作题目
收起The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper:
“Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
答题辅导
收起题目翻译
虽然基于民调的总统选举预测可以估计当前选民的倾向。但很多选民直到选举前几天一直拿不定主意。一些人甚至在进投票站之前都没法最后决定。因此基于民调的预测和随机猜测相比在预期选举结果方面好不了多少。